Bittensor Investment Calculator
What would buying TAO have been worth? Pick a plan and a start date and this replays it against real daily Bittensor closes.
What TAO actually did, in the data this page replays
Measured from the 886 daily closes this page replays — 11 April 2024 to 13 September 2026, from Binance. Figures are bounded by that window, not by the asset’s whole life.
| History available | 2 years and 5 months (from Binance) |
|---|---|
| Bought on the first day, held to the last | 0.376× — a loss of 62.4% |
| Highest close in this window | $712.9 on 8 December 2024 |
| Where it sits against that high | 67.1% below |
| Deepest fall | −79.5%, 8 December 2024 → 11 February 2026 |
| Time to get back to that peak | still below it |
| Separate falls of 50% or more | 2 |
| Days spent more than 20% below a previous peak | 92.7% |
| Best calendar year | 2025: -55.2% |
| Annualised volatility | 104.5% |
TAO year by year
First close to last close each year. 2024 and 2026 are partial — the data starts mid-2024 and 2026 is still running.
| Year | Change | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2024 | -29.3% | partial year |
| 2025 | -55.2% | best full year |
| 2026 | +1.7% | partial year |
The part the calculator does not show you
Held from the first day in this data to the last, TAO returned 0.376× — a loss of 62.4%. Long holding periods are usually presented as the thing that rescues a volatile asset, and over this particular window for this particular coin, they did not. It is worth setting the calculator above to the full range and seeing that result written out before assuming time fixes an entry.
The deepest fall took TAO down 79.5%, from $712.9 on 8 December 2024 to $145.9 on 11 February 2026 — 14 months of falling. TAO has not been back to that peak since. Anyone who bought on 8 December 2024 is still waiting, 15 months later — which is the scenario a backtest showing a positive average return quietly averages away.
Note that TAO's best calendar year in this window is still a negative one (2025, -55.2%). There is no year in the data where holding it for the twelve months made money.
104.5% annualised volatility is ordinary for a major crypto asset and still several times a stock index. All TAO calculators →
Frequently asked questions
＋Would buying TAO on the first day of this data and holding have made money?
No. Held across the whole window the position ended at 0.376× — a loss of 62.4%. That is worth stating plainly because "hold long enough and it recovers" is the usual advice, and over the 2 years and 5 months we hold for TAO it did not happen.
＋What is the worst TAO has fallen?
79.5% in this data, from 8 December 2024 down to 11 February 2026 — 14 months of falling. It has not returned to that peak since, so anyone who bought at the top is still waiting. Bear in mind our TAO series starts in 2024; a deeper fall before that date would not appear here.
＋How often does TAO lose half its value?
2 separate falls of 50% or more appear in this data, and the position spent 92.7% of all days more than 20% below a previous peak. A drop of that size is not an exceptional event for this asset — it is a recurring feature of the record, which is the thing to size a position around.
＋Is 2 years and 5 months of data enough to trust this backtest?
Partly. 2 years and 5 months covers real bull and bear conditions for TAO but not a full cycle end to end, so the extremes above are better guides than the average. Coins on this site with longer records give more meaningful answers.
What to keep in mind for TAO
TAO is one of the highest-beta assets in the market, moving on AI news and on subnet emission changes, with drawdowns to match.
Transaction costs on the Bittensor chain are small; the real cost of participating is the hardware and model quality needed to earn emissions.
A backtest is one path that already happened. It shows what this plan produced through the exact sequence of prices TAO went through — not what a similar plan will produce through a sequence nobody has seen yet.